Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
